Population density, water supply, and the risk of dengue fever in Vietnam: cohort study and spatial analysis.

BACKGROUND: Aedes aegypti, the major vector of dengue viruses, often breeds in water storage containers used by households without tap water supply, and occurs in high numbers even in dense urban areas. We analysed the interaction between human population density and lack of tap water as a cause of dengue fever outbreaks with the aim of identifying geographic areas at highest risk. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted an individual-level cohort study in a population of 75,000 geo-referenced households in Vietnam over the course of two epidemics, on the basis of dengue hospital admissions (n = 3,013). We applied space-time scan statistics and mathematical models to confirm the findings. We identified a surprisingly narrow range of critical human population densities between around 3,000 to 7,000 people/km² prone to dengue outbreaks. In the study area, this population density was typical of villages and some peri-urban areas. Scan statistics showed that areas with a high population density or adequate water supply did not experience severe outbreaks. The risk of dengue was higher in rural than in urban areas, largely explained by lack of piped water supply, and in human population densities more often falling within the critical range. Mathematical modeling suggests that simple assumptions regarding area-level vector/host ratios may explain the occurrence of outbreaks. CONCLUSIONS: Rural areas may contribute at least as much to the dissemination of dengue fever as cities. Improving water supply and vector control in areas with a human population density critical for dengue transmission could increase the efficiency of control efforts. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary

On positivity of Ehrhart polynomials

Ehrhart discovered that the function that counts the number of lattice points in dilations of an integral polytope is a polynomial. We call the coefficients of this polynomial Ehrhart coefficients, and say a polytope is Ehrhart positive if all Ehrhart coefficients are positive (which is not true for all integral polytopes). The main purpose of this article is to survey interesting families of polytopes that are known to be Ehrhart positive and discuss the reasons from which their Ehrhart positivity follows. We also include examples of polytopes that have negative Ehrhart coefficients and polytopes that are conjectured to be Ehrhart positive, as well as pose a few relevant questions.Comment: 40 pages, 7 figures. To appear in in Recent Trends in Algebraic Combinatorics, a volume of the Association for Women in Mathematics Series, Springer International Publishin

Parasitism by the Endoparasitoid, Cotesia flavipes Induces Cellular Immunosuppression and Enhances Susceptibility of the Sugar Cane Borer, Diatraea saccharalis to Bacillus thuringiensis

Cotesia flavipes Cameron (Hymenoptera: Braconidae), is a gregarious larval endoparasitoid of the sugarcane borer, Diatraea saccharalis Fabricius (Lepidoptera: Crambidae). The aim of this research was to analyze cellular immunosuppression of D. saccharalis parasitized by C. flavipes in terms of encapsulation, melanization, and hemocyte nodule formation. The encapsulation assay was done 1 and 6 days after parasitoid oviposition. In addition, the susceptibility of parasitized and nonparasitzed larvae to Bacillus thuringiensis HD 73 strain was assessed. 3, 12, and 24 h after bead injection; the percentages of encapsulation were significantly higher in unparasitized larvae compared to larvae parasitized 1 and 6 days after oviposition. Interestingly, there was a significant reduction in numbers of beads encapsulated at 1 day after oviposition compared to 6 days, and unparasitized larvae. The percentage of melanized beads decreased significantly in parasitized larvae compared to control. There was a reduction in the number of nodules in parasitized larvae compared to unparasitized controls. Larvae that were injected with polyndavirus 24 h before beads were injected showed significantly reduced encapsulation responses relative to control larvae. The D. saccharalis parasitized by C. flavipes exhibited higher susceptibility to B. thuringiensis. These results suggest that parasitization induced host immunosuppression, and the immunosuppression factors could impair the defense capacity against microbial pathogens - causing an increase in pathogen susceptibility

Dynamic Analysis of Vascular Morphogenesis Using Transgenic Quail Embryos

Background: One of the least understood and most central questions confronting biologists is how initially simple clusters or sheet-like cell collectives can assemble into highly complex three-dimensional functional tissues and organs. Due to the limits of oxygen diffusion, blood vessels are an essential and ubiquitous presence in all amniote tissues and organs. Vasculogenesis, the de novo self-assembly of endothelial cell (EC) precursors into endothelial tubes, is the first step in blood vessel formation [1]. Static imaging and in vitro models are wholly inadequate to capture many aspects of vascular pattern formation in vivo, because vasculogenesis involves dynamic changes of the endothelial cells and of the forming blood vessels, in an embryo that is changing size and shape. Methodology/Principal Findings: We have generated Tie1 transgenic quail lines Tg(tie1:H2B-eYFP) that express H2B-eYFP in all of their endothelial cells which permit investigations into early embryonic vascular morphogenesis with unprecedented clarity and insight. By combining the power of molecular genetics with the elegance of dynamic imaging, we follow the precise patterning of endothelial cells in space and time. We show that during vasculogenesis within the vascular plexus, ECs move independently to form the rudiments of blood vessels, all while collectively moving with gastrulating tissues that flow toward the embryo midline. The aortae are a composite of somatic derived ECs forming its dorsal regions and the splanchnic derived ECs forming its ventral region. The ECs in the dorsal regions of the forming aortae exhibit variable mediolateral motions as they move rostrally; those in more ventral regions show significant lateral-to-medial movement as they course rostrally. Conclusions/Significance: The present results offer a powerful approach to the major challenge of studying the relative role(s) of the mechanical, molecular, and cellular mechanisms of vascular development. In past studies, the advantages of the molecular genetic tools available in mouse were counterbalanced by the limited experimental accessibility needed for imaging and perturbation studies. Avian embryos provide the needed accessibility, but few genetic resources. The creation of transgenic quail with labeled endothelia builds upon the important roles that avian embryos have played in previous studies of vascular development

Stochastic population growth in spatially heterogeneous environments

Classical ecological theory predicts that environmental stochasticity increases extinction risk by reducing the average per-capita growth rate of populations. To understand the interactive effects of environmental stochasticity, spatial heterogeneity, and dispersal on population growth, we study the following model for population abundances in $n$ patches: the conditional law of $X_{t+dt}$ given $X_t=x$ is such that when $dt$ is small the conditional mean of $X_{t+dt}^i-X_t^i$ is approximately $[x^i\mu_i+\sum_j(x^j D_{ji}-x^i D_{ij})]dt$, where $X_t^i$ and $\mu_i$ are the abundance and per capita growth rate in the $i$-th patch respectivly, and $D_{ij}$ is the dispersal rate from the $i$-th to the $j$-th patch, and the conditional covariance of $X_{t+dt}^i-X_t^i$ and $X_{t+dt}^j-X_t^j$ is approximately $x^i x^j \sigma_{ij}dt$. We show for such a spatially extended population that if $S_t=(X_t^1+...+X_t^n)$ is the total population abundance, then $Y_t=X_t/S_t$, the vector of patch proportions, converges in law to a random vector $Y_\infty$ as $t\to\infty$, and the stochastic growth rate $\lim_{t\to\infty}t^{-1}\log S_t$ equals the space-time average per-capita growth rate \sum_i\mu_i\E[Y_\infty^i] experienced by the population minus half of the space-time average temporal variation \E[\sum_{i,j}\sigma_{ij}Y_\infty^i Y_\infty^j] experienced by the population. We derive analytic results for the law of $Y_\infty$, find which choice of the dispersal mechanism $D$ produces an optimal stochastic growth rate for a freely dispersing population, and investigate the effect on the stochastic growth rate of constraints on dispersal rates. Our results provide fundamental insights into "ideal free" movement in the face of uncertainty, the persistence of coupled sink populations, the evolution of dispersal rates, and the single large or several small (SLOSS) debate in conservation biology.Comment: 47 pages, 4 figure

Regularity Properties and Pathologies of Position-Space Renormalization-Group Transformations

We reconsider the conceptual foundations of the renormalization-group (RG) formalism, and prove some rigorous theorems on the regularity properties and possible pathologies of the RG map. Regarding regularity, we show that the RG map, defined on a suitable space of interactions (= formal Hamiltonians), is always single-valued and Lipschitz continuous on its domain of definition. This rules out a recently proposed scenario for the RG description of first-order phase transitions. On the pathological side, we make rigorous some arguments of Griffiths, Pearce and Israel, and prove in several cases that the renormalized measure is not a Gibbs measure for any reasonable interaction. This means that the RG map is ill-defined, and that the conventional RG description of first-order phase transitions is not universally valid. For decimation or Kadanoff transformations applied to the Ising model in dimension $d \ge 3$, these pathologies occur in a full neighborhood $\{ \beta > \beta_0 ,\, |h| < \epsilon(\beta) \}$ of the low-temperature part of the first-order phase-transition surface. For block-averaging transformations applied to the Ising model in dimension $d \ge 2$, the pathologies occur at low temperatures for arbitrary magnetic-field strength. Pathologies may also occur in the critical region for Ising models in dimension $d \ge 4$. We discuss in detail the distinction between Gibbsian and non-Gibbsian measures, and give a rather complete catalogue of the known examples. Finally, we discuss the heuristic and numerical evidence on RG pathologies in the light of our rigorous theorems.Comment: 273 pages including 14 figures, Postscript, See also ftp.scri.fsu.edu:hep-lat/papers/9210/9210032.ps.